LA PAZ – After an electoral court decision this week, Bolivia’s President Evo Morales can run for a fourth consecutive term in next year’s election. The decision comes even as Bolivia’s constitution imposes a term limit on the presidency. To avoid having to skip a term, Morales tried to alter the constitution in 2016. A referendum early that year should have rubber-stamped the move but backfired as voters disapproved by a wide margin.
To find an explanation for the popular rejection, Team Morales argued that a bizarre episode that emerged at the time had voters deceived and confused. The country representative of Chinese firm CAMC, claimed the president had fathered her child. But no child appeared. Yet, it’s disrespectful to voters to suggest they couldn’t separate the issues. Moreover, the government could have called another referendum, but it wasn’t sure it would win.
To get a whiff of legitimacy this time his supporters argued before the electoral court that Morales has the human right to run since every citizen may stand for office. But Morales isn’t every citizen since he already stood for office and served all the terms allowed under the constitution. In any case, he could run without trouble if he just skipped the next presidential term.
The court’s decision therefore doesn’t show respect for human rights, but disdain for the constitution and certainly fear of the government.
This attack on the law sets Bolivia on the political path toward Venezuela, or right-wing autocracies like Hungary and Turkey. In these countries democratic institutions designed to curb government power had been systematically weakened and eventually destroyed.
Economically, however, Morales subscribes to corporate paradigm (in deed, not words). After a slew of nationalizations, his policies turned toward accommodating investment and exports, even though he’s been selective with trade partners. Nevertheless, his courting of China, revered across the continent by left and right-wing governments, will ensure investments and profits keep flowing.
Chile may hang back
So far, the electoral court decision hasn’t any impact on Chile-Bolivia relations. An improvement is not more or less likely under any candidate. The maritime demand against Chile has shown that the country in general isn’t too popular in Bolivia, and any candidate that had better relations on the agenda would have to tread carefully.
This year’s rejection of Bolivia’s maritime demand against Chile at the International Court of Justice resolved Chile’s greatest problem with its neighbor and dealt Morales a massive blow. He therefore won’t mention Chile too much on the campaign trail, not least because concocting a new demand would take too much time before it could serve as a campaign issue with similar impact. Chile will thus not emerge as enemy No. 1 during the campaign.
With the maritime demand out of the way, Chilean foreign-policy makers can sit back while following the race next year – and adjust their carrots accordingly.
Rising opposition
Even the latest weakening of Bolivian democracy could have a silver lining. Protests are already forming against Morales’ maneuver. So far, one woman lost her life in the turmoil which is set to increase pressure on Morales. This crisis could cost him even more support and galvanize the opposition.
Chilean daily El Mercurio cited Bolivian academic and analyst Carlos Cordero as saying that “at the end of the campaign we’ll see a united front against Morales.” If that front holds, democracy could well blossom in the coming years, even if Morales gets re-elected.
Christian is Managing Editor at Chile Today, where he curates the foreign policy blog Teatinos One/Eighty. Christian is also Lead Editor of E-International Relations, co-editor of an open access textbook on International Relations Theory and Director at the Chilean Association of International Specialists (ACHEI).