Just weeks ago, the government accelerated its anti-pandemic strategy. The Health Minister indulged jokes – “maybe the virus becomes a good person” – and implied Chile was the only country in the region with the right approach, polemicizing with Argentina’s government. In a by now normal impromptu act, President Sebastián Piñera launched the “new normality,” calling on public officials to return to their offices within 48 hours and malls to open their doors.
Unfortunately, things have changed radically. “Normality” is increasingly distant, the so-called “Safe Return Plan” became a reality for very few activities and industries, and starting a few days ago, almost five million Chileans have come under quarantine while contagion figures rise at an alarming rate. Although the “flattening of the curve” was supposedly imminent, over 1,000 new cases emerge now daily.
Why was La Moneda obsessed with concluding the most complex contagion phase, long before reaching peak? Was it a strategic mistake, or was it simply the president’s anxiety about regaining support lost during the social outburst? A mix of both is the most likely explanation. Because not only did the scientific community pose searing questions about data management, but Piñera also received criticism from his own coalition over the lack of prudence in his announcements.
The government’s claims that the increase in cases relates to an increase in testing and reckless behavior of the population is only one side. Officials ruled out a national quarantine, unlike most countries in Latin America and beyond. Mañalich said such a quarantine was unnecessary because it would affect other areas of daily life, citing politically correctly the increase in domestic violence. Piñera added that our country was better prepared than the rest of the Latin America.
La Moneda never intended to accept the insistent offers of mayors to collaborate. With a provocative arrogance, officials claimed we had the best healthcare on the planet and our country was exceptional. This echoes the president’s interview with CNN, when he said Chile was an “oasis of stability” compared to its Latin American peers – just a few days before the outburst of October 18.
Read more from Germán Silva Cuadra:
‘Successism’ took hold in La Moneda. Not prudence but excessive self-indulgence was exercised, even though we were facing a health emergency of unprecedented national and international proportions. That created a kind of schizophrenia, considering that the first cases arrived in mid-February – although case 0 was recorded on March 3 – in the middle of summer.
But autumn and winter were not far away, and then, besides the cold, Sars-Cov-2 would circulate together with other viruses, especially influenza. Undoubtedly, a key factor in this success exaggeration was the formation of the Piñera-Mañalich political duo. The entity got hold of crisis management and left the other ministers – whom the president doesn’t seem to trust much – in the background. The best example of this is the secondary role government spokesperson Karla Rubilar has played.
Now the promise of reaching peak contagion in late April/early May is being “rescheduled” daily. Although uncertainty was growing amid desperate calls by mayors to shut down the Metropolitan Region and cities like Antofagasta or Mejillones, the government continued its return to normal. It did not listen to the Medical College, nor the Society of Infectiology, and even less to the mayors. La Moneda bet on a message of economic crisis.
With that argument, the president even suggested the date for the plebiscite on the Constitution, already postponed to October, could be changed again. By now, however, the notion of “control” the Executive projected a month ago has dissipated. It also seems the authorities have abandoned their initial strategy that excluded mass quarantines. So did we lose two months?
These last two weeks, as numbers soared, we have noticed the disarray and lack of political management in the handling of the crisis. Quarantine announcements were planned only for Tuesdays to avoid confusion – now they could come any day.
From here on in all bets are off. As Argentines begin to leave their homes after a national lockdown, Chile seems to just enter the worst phase, with the feeling that the government’s strategy at least on extensive confinement was wrong. Obviously, successes in other areas cannot be devalued. But it is a fact that the discourse, the story must change.
It is impossible to reach a national bargain when the authority self-attributes premature success and blames a few irresponsible citizens for throwing parties, or points fingers at those that need to go outside for work. We are not Sweden, nor do we have the Japanese’s discipline. And we don’t have a protective state that allows us to stay inside and pay the bills or buy food.
A few weeks ago, the president said any person in the country who needs a respirator or hospital bed will get one. The hope was that he was right, and the promise could be kept. But our intensive care capacity is about to collapse, so people will die faster. Hopefully, we haven’t lost two valuable months.
Germán Silva Cuadra is an expert in corporate communications and a regular commentator on Chilean politics. His latest book is ‘No te reconozco Chile. Cómo entender al país que noqueó a la elite.’ Germán tweets under @gsilvacuadra.